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May 02, 2006
APPARITION OF THE PREDATOR
“Never before have so many people assumed that war was an institution has outlived its usefulness.”
Chris Hables Gray: Post Modern War
You Say you got a real solution
Well you know
we'd all love to see the plan
You ask me for a contribution
Well you know
We're doing what we can
But when you want money for people with minds that hate
All I can tell you is brother you have to wait
John Lennon
Understanding the Paradigm Shift.
Sri Lanka heads for civil war!, War looms over Island nation …., these are the new media reports that scream on all media wires and the high potential online news spaces. The country at the dawn of its rising from the destruction from the Tsunami is slowly, painfully and horrifically being drawn to a vortex of violence, death and chaos. This is all summed up by many as the backdrop for the fourth episode of Prabhaharans eelam war. The writer looks at the crisis that has evoked the Sri Lankan state and its political institutions. The regressive ideologies of human agency within the political structures will too be scrutinized. The present reality is that we have entered a political crisis in the form of the destabilizing politics of North and East of Sri Lanka with a circulating effect on South. Stressing on the current ‘ground reality’ the crisis can be seen in the lights of strategic misguidance and misleading political leadership. The strategic failing comes with the changes that have taken place in the forms and approaches on handling conflicts both militarily and in broad public spheres, as the conflicts has evolved with time and their shapes and forms have become radically different from where they earlier were. Military sciences have become a discipline with ongoing dynamic changes and adoptions. So has to be the political leadership which has to make decisions on the operationalization of the military in this current context. No longer is the war, a war between trained individuals bearing arms and having access to the best military hardware there is. War has become a multi level theatre, while maintaining the traditional military vigor the dynamics of new internal conflict formation has to be absorbed in strategy.
LTTE and its post modern War Machinery.
War strategists began to use the term post modern with the development of tehnosciences and use of information communication technologies in warfare. Also the fact that the term modern war is attributed to battles which took place in history around 1500s. There still lies a controversy among academics, military scientists and researchers on what was the first post modern war in the world. It is attributed to Vietnam, some to the first Gulf War in 1990, some to the Kosovan war. But military strategists argue that the second world war was the first ever post modern war which took place in the context of developing computing power and information warfare basics. But the focus has shifted to militant groups and movements and the new methods they wage their battles, from liberation movements to terrorist cells the world has witnessed a radical change of practice. Earlier terrorism was the organized planned attacks on identified political leadership to disrupt political processes and systems. Later on they evolved to become the cold blooded murder of civilians as an influencing factor on the state. (this excludes the Hashashins who are identified as organized militants from Mecca around 600 A.D).
The Zapatista rebels from Chiapas regions of Mexico who struggle to establish a separate indigenous homeland for the Zapatista Indians are known as the premier post modern rebel movement. They used cyber technologies extensively from their jungle hideouts for their propaganda networks, funding machineries and mobilization efforts internationally. Many may not be aware of the fact that the LTTE is the first recorded cyber terrorist group in the world. In August 1997, the Internet Black Tigers (IBT) attacked the email systems of several Sri Lankan embassies throughout the world. But the LTTE was never recognized as an organization or militant entity which is operating under a post modern architecture.
The LTTE activities have not being yet analyzed in this context comprehensively; the current LTTE strategy has become more focused on extending its struggle through all these mediums. The Tigers and its umbrella of front officers have been using online technologies extensively in the past few years. But in the post 2001 ear it has intensified more as the LTTE acquired massive sophisticated computer and communication equipment including the VSATs. This gave them massive information coverage while creating high speed linkages with their international networks. The LTTE used a system of cyber warfare on all state institutions but these attacks went without notice as simply the human agency handling them were not aware that their systems were under attack. (Full details will be published soon as they were uncovered by the writer on a research conducted on use of cyber warfare in the eelam wars).
Strategy as Myopia: (Tiger Triple Stratagem).
The LTTE is employing a complicated three way strategy of isolation, international repositioning and high density fear/ chaos complex. Currently the issue is not just on the LTTE and its cyber war but the expansion of the struggle very intensively on diverse levels by the organization. Firstly, The LTTE strategy in Sri Lanka is quite simple; to reposition the SL armed forces as demons and the LTTE the sole protector of Tamil civilians. This is read and understood by the Sri Lankan government as well as the security establishment. Secondly the international strategy is more complicate; it has several layers of operations. It involves directly addressing the Tamil Diaspora and convincing them for further support. The Tamil Diaspora was recently distraught with issues pertaining to the LTTE leadership and its internal split. Repositioning its stance of a Tamil liberation organization by extensively using its network or civil society resources, such as academics, foreign activist, human rights organizations and from recently international student bodies. This of course amply supported by certain mishaps where the state would have more strategic insight. The murder of Joseph Pararajasingham, harassment of Tamil civilians, mysterious deaths of civilians blamed on the military and even rape of Tamil girls. The international propaganda strategy is boosted by Tamil Diasporic movements and cyber political campaigns that create a virtual space for reconstructing the Sri Lankan North and East in the seekers eye. The best emerging evidence is the recent murder of five Tamil youths in Trincomalee and the vivid imagery created online from the morgue, funeral, and funeral procession to the final rites.
Thirdly even more sinister development is the regime of terror with no lead; it is a repetition of the dark era of 89/90 in the South. Bloody murders, violence with no traces of perpetrators as this chaotic space becomes occupied by death squads. The downside of the operation of multiple death squads is that even the elements behind it tend to lose control of the monsters of their own creation. In the North and East paramilitary elements fighting against the LTTE seem to resemble the war lordism in Somalia. In contrast the LTTE backed paramilitaries seems to be gaining upper hand while sustaining a culture of fear. As they are always backed by civil organizations which coordinate their attacks while providing civic cover for them. The Sri Lankan state and its political institutions have become vulnerable to these strategies and seem to be responding on moves purely based on tactical advantages. This was one weakness which the political decision makers demonstrated when countering crafty LTTE militico-political strategies. As it seems many decisions making agencies seems to be substituting tactics for strategies. These provide ample fuel for the LTTE propaganda machinery which thrives on tactical blunders of the Sri Lankan government.
The LTTE is striking hard at where the Sri Lankan political machinery is weak at; it is reaffirming its political legitimacy among Western states and most of its civil society apparatus. They seem to have read the weaknesses of the new National leadership of Sri Lanka. When Prabaharan on his hero’s day speech attempted to pamper President Rajapaksa he was indirectly challenging him to be active. The LTTE leadership in a short while has read the political limitations that the new President was in or rather had imposed on him. Thus Mahinda Rajapaksa has to face the challenge of taking a strong and swift stand on curtailing the terrorist attacks of intimidation on Sri Lankan armed forces. This if continues will seriously hamper the moral of the soldiers and also lead them to break their disciplinary calm. Also President Rajapaksa needs to win the battle for the hearts and minds of the civilians in the North and East. Militarily crushing LTTE will give the Sri Lankan state nothing. It will justify the rebel claim, Sri Lankan state as eternal occupiers of the Tamils. The President needs to wage a war for peace, with clear commitments to these people who have suffered for more than two decades.
In countering the LTTE international operations he should influence the Sri Lankan Diaspora to activate it self and also encourage independent organizations and groups which do so. As the Tamil Diaspora is a huge fund source it self, mainly some are so keen to see the war going. None of their sons or daughters are battling the war it’s the unfortunate ones who could escape the war still living in fear. But similarly the Sri Lankan Sinhalese diaspora, some who are die hard nationalist but never want to come back. There should be diaspora solidarity in defeating the fundamental terrorist and nationalist propaganda. But it should be one that wants to build a coherent Sri Lanka.
Regionalism, Terrorism & A.B.Cs of Geopolitics.
‘India is our great savior’, ‘Indians should be a part of new peace efforts of Sri Lanka’, this was the slogan many influential figures in the country civil and political carried on. This was the only advice many close to President Rajapaksa gave him. Also it seems that President Rajapaksa also strongly believed this. This mis-reading of Indian foreign policy and the ever changing role of the super power in regional politics has taken the toll on Sri Lanka. There still remains a belief that India is the best fried of Sri Lanka. But sadly in geo politics India has interests in Sri Lankan affairs not because this emerging global powerhouse is in love with it. The Sri Lankan President’s recent visit to India was a classic example for the demonstration of the new Indian policy. Offering words of consolation instead pledges of commitment.
Indian interest in Sri Lanka is in total different spheres like gaining access and authority to strategic seaports like Trincomalee, gaining access to industries that run the life line of the country like the energy sector. Thus India is a Sri Lankan ally but not a friend that will make whole hearted commitments to internal issues. Thus Sri Lankan strategists may have to come up with rethinking geo politics if not learn the a.b.c’s of it before it’s too late. We should be looking at strategic partnerships with other nations which have interest in the country and by doing so balance an eminent threat of total surrender to more ruthless regional powers. In fact certain strategic geo political initiatives by India have disrupted political stability of South Asian nations like Bangladesh and Nepal. India is some times a friend in need but not a good bedfellow.
The trip of Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera to the United States is very significant as the LTTE front offices have restarted vigorous campaign all through USA. Especially Tamil Sangaams in USA have begun a coordinated effort to apply pressure on the Congress. Sri Lanka needs to expand its diplomatic relationships with frequent visits like this which provides the top executive branches to speak for the country.
Face Off: Cyber attack, Modern guerrilla tactics & savage terrorism
Sri Lanka as a state is under three types of threats the modern guerrillas, post modern net warriors and the historic barbarian onslaughts and this mix can be quite explosive. Conventional defense tactics, public policy and foreign policy will not help the state to tackle these or even match the threat. The state needs to think afresh, read the trends of terrorism and new dimensions of its mobilization to come up with a deterrent. It needs to arrest the violence and prevent the country being dragged into a cycle of death. This article is not a critique on the state but it is a plea to look at things alternatively. The writer is no nationalist, nor leftist or an international stooge. But share the dream of all Sri Lankans. We just want to live like Sri Lankans, the identity we all should be proud of this is the challenge of the new political leadership. We should build and establish the state of Sri Lanka not contribute to wards the establishment of hinterlands of the Sinhalese, the Tamils or Muslims.
John Lennon may not be the best person to quote in the end or at the beginning of a political analysis. The message is clear, we all should think about it, or no Sri Lankan will ever see the apparition of the Predator till exorcism becomes certain impossibility.
“You Say you you’ll change the Constitution
Well you know
we all want to change your head
you tell me it's the institution
Well you know
You better free your mind instead”
“Revolution” 1968, John Lennon
Harunda Ranura Vidanage is a PhD Student attached to the University of Edimburgh
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